Optimism Bias

Tom Pellereau:

One of the worst flights that I missed, so Jono, do you remember when I missed my flight back for your wedding, when I was the best man?

 

Jono Hey:

I do remember that, yeah.

 

Tom Pellereau:

You remember that one?

 

Rob Bell:

Right, what I would say is that people who have a tendency to be more influenced by their optimism bias, they probably are more fun to be around.

 

Don't you think?

 

Jono Hey:

Who wants to be around a cynical pessimist?

 

Nah, that won't work.

 

Tom Pellereau:

I think The Apprentice is possibly the biggest show of optimism bias that there is.

 

It's like every single week.

 

Jono Hey:

True.

 

Eeyore is like the ultimate pessimist.

 

It'll never work.

 

No point in doing that.

 

It's probably broken already.

 

And then you've got Tigger.

 

Tigger is like the ultimate optimist.

 

This is gonna be amazing.

 

I can do that, let's go.

 

And then he gets stuck up a tree, you know?

 

Rob Bell:

Are you a glass half full or half empty kind of person?

 

Research shows that we're generally more inclined to have an optimistic outlook on life.

 

And the consequences of that can be great.

 

They can also be disastrous.

 

Hello and welcome to Sketchplanations, The Podcast.

 

What we like to think of as the tonic to your gin, the coke to your dark spiced rum, or simply the pain to your sham.

 

Each episode we select and discuss one of the many topics covered by the sketches at sketchplanations.com.

 

I'm Rob Bell and once again, I'm joined by two fascinating young minds.

 

The awesomely articulate architect of Sketchplanations, Jono Hey, and possibly the world's most, sorry.

 

And possibly the world's most unrestrained reverend of resourcefulness, Tom Pellereau.

 

Hello chaps.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Hello, thank you very much.

 

Jono Hey:

Good evening.

 

Rob Bell:

How are we doing all right?

 

Tom Pellereau:

Very good, very good.

 

Jono Hey:

Yes, very good to be here and chat with you guys again.

 

Rob Bell:

Jono, I've noticed in quite a few of your sketches and mainly it's directly relevant to whatever that sketch is about, but there are quite a lot of large landscapes or kind of geographical features or cityscapes that are built into your sketches.

 

As I say, a lot of the time that is because they're relevant to the sketch directly.

 

But I was wondering if that's something that you enjoy including in your sketches.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah, interesting question.

 

I guess I feel like the only function like backdrops and things serve really is about context.

 

So they sort of set the scene for the whole sketch.

 

So they're not that fundamental to whether or not you're gonna get it.

 

But they can add quite a bit that makes you appreciate it and maybe enjoy the sketch more.

 

And I think also personally, I don't know what I do know about you actually.

 

I'm a massive fan of Calvin and Hobbes.

 

I think Tom, you even bought me a Calvin and Hobbes book one time.

 

And I just love those.

 

That's actually one of the things that makes Calvin and Hobbes is a cartoon with a six-year-old boy and his stuffed tiger.

 

If you haven't seen it, you should just go buy all the books.

 

They're brilliant.

 

Rob Bell:

I second that.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah, they're absolutely brilliant.

 

They're smart, but they're also beautiful things to look at.

 

And a lot of them you're just looking at and going, wow, these are just great art and you're taking in the meaning of it.

 

And so a part of me is trying to bring in a little bit of the Calvin and Hobbs.

 

I think it's what makes that different from, I dare say, like a Garfield or something, where it's really, it's just like somebody sat at a table and there's nothing there.

 

And you see one of the Calvin and Hobbs sketches and you get the whole scene, you get the whole idea and you get so much more nuance to it.

 

But yeah, often I think I just quite, I quite like drawing them.

 

Rob Bell:

I'm really pleased you say that because I get a lot of enjoyment from those.

 

And as you say, it's so much about providing that context.

 

Because then I started looking through quite a lot of your sketches and then just really enjoying that backdrop, landscape or cityscape or whatever it might be.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah, definitely part of the idea, but there is also like, it's easy to get stuck into like doing a backdrop when you have, when people are really quite confused about what the point of the sketches in the first place.

 

You know, wow, but I quite like this picture, but I don't know what you're talking about.

 

Well, probably should fix that first.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Yeah, but doesn't the mountain in the background look epic in that tree?

 

Jono Hey:

It's lovely.

 

No idea what you're talking about.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Jono, do you remember 20 odd years ago, we talked about starting a company called Many Levels?

 

Because there's just so many, and I think we may even still own the domain, because there's so many different levels in anything, because you have to get the strategy right of where you're going from the top.

 

But also, in my job, if the new product that's designed to clip nails doesn't really work particularly, and it breaks after two years, then that product is completely useless, even if the strategy was amazing.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah.

 

I was remembering many levels.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Many levels, yeah.

 

Pretty paid for that domain name for 20 years.

 

Rob Bell:

Do you know what though, even if you don't do anything with it, or along the lines of what you had originally in mind, it could work as a nightclub.

 

Many levels.

 

Where are you going down to?

 

Oh, I'm going down levels tonight.

 

I'll see you down there, mate.

 

Rob.

 

It's good.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Yeah, Jono and I haven't been in a nightclub for a while, but you know.

 

Rob Bell:

Speak for yourself.

 

All right then.

 

It's about time we drove down into the detail of this week's episode.

 

Don't forget, we'll be going through a bunch of your correspondence and messages at the very end.

 

So stay tuned till then.

 

All right, let's get going.

 

The topic we've chosen this week is Optimism Bias, a tendency to believe that things will turn out well in spite of past evidence or circumstances.

 

And you should be able to see the sketch already as the artwork for this episode, and you can follow the links in the podcast description to see it in more detail at sketchplanations.com or on Instagram and Twitter.

 

Right then, Jono, Optimism Bias.

 

How did this sketch come about?

 

And did the sketch turn out as well as you'd hoped?

 

Jono Hey:

Good question.

 

Yeah, you know what?

 

It's a funny one, this.

 

Actually, I was trying to think back to exactly what the stimulus was to where this came from.

 

And I think it came from listening to something or an article, and it was one of many things mentioned.

 

And I just remember, like quite clearly, it's just, it resonated with me.

 

A lot of the situations where optimism bias comes out, and then I just remember thinking, I don't know, sometimes you just have, sometimes you just get a clear view, a visual in mind.

 

I was really thinking of these red ball things in the desert where you see people doing ridiculous things on motorbikes and bikes, and then they're going around in the southwest of America, jumping over chasms and stuff.

 

And so the sketch is just a chap visualizing himself safely jumping over to the other side and everybody cheering him and thinking how great they are, and falling comfortably short.

 

But yeah, so Optimism Bikes is all about overestimating our chances of success, and it allows people to try and do ridiculous things like that.

 

But you know, it doesn't always work out.

 

Rob Bell:

The sketch, I have to say, is brilliant, because once again, there's a little bit of humour in there as well, which for me is that word, as he realises he's about to slap into the side of a cliff.

 

I mean, that is something that continues that I get to get enjoyment from your sketches, Jono.

 

Is that just that little bit of humour?

 

Tom Pellereau:

It's a really, really beautiful sketch as well.

 

Like the mountains in the background, the canyon, the people in the foreground, the yay versus the huh, and another fact that in the yay one, it's also a much smaller gap.

 

Rob Bell:

Well, have you guys got clear examples of when you've experienced optimism bias, either something that you've recognised in yourself or when you've recognised it in others?

 

Tom Pellereau:

I might be being optimistically biased, but I feel like I've got a million of these that just constantly seem to come up.

 

One very pertinent one is hopefully my sound quality is much better today.

 

And listeners, I hope you got my apology from last week, but it turned out I got this brand spanking new microphone, so it would sound amazing, the quality.

 

And there's this huge instruction booklet.

 

And I went, oh, I don't need an instruction booklet for a microphone.

 

So I plugged it in, recorded last week.

 

And I was a bit disappointed, but Rob said, your sound really isn't that great.

 

I was like, oh, I spent, you know, this is a really talk a lot.

 

And then I read the instructions after the after we finished the podcast and discovered that I had it backwards.

 

Absolutely ridiculous mistake.

 

And if I'd read the instructions and not had the optimism bias that I knew exactly what I was doing with a microphone and that I'm a techie person, then last week's episode would have been much better.

 

So that's just an example.

 

I think The Apprentice is possibly the biggest show of optimism bias that there is.

 

It's like every single week, especially when the boys are on their own at the beginning.

 

There's just all this optimism.

 

Yeah, we're going to smash this.

 

We're going to be the best.

 

We're going to win this so easy.

 

And then, you know, and they're like high-fiving.

 

Yeah, we've written great content.

 

We sold that out of our skin.

 

We're going to beat the other team, et cetera.

 

And very, very rarely does that happen.

 

So every week, every minute of that show is optimism bias played out.

 

Jono Hey:

That's brilliant.

 

You know what, the first thing that came to mind, it's a bit silly.

 

It's not a professional really example.

 

It's the...

 

Rob Bell:

It's very welcome on this podcast.

 

Jono Hey:

For my sins, I'm a Southampton supporter, as you might know, who's struggling at the moment.

 

I just think when you support a team, it's just so prevalent this optimism bias.

 

And it can really clear to me when a friend of mine, a very talented developer, did a side project to allow you to predict all the football results through the season and you'd be ranked against other people predicting all the football results.

 

Yeah, yeah.

 

So, you know, Arsenal versus West Ham, I put my guess.

 

And every time it comes to a Southampton game, even despite all past evidence or current circumstances, there's a little bit of you that goes, you know what, we could do it this time.

 

We could do it this time.

 

And I really thought like if you aggregated those around, I bet there's a big boost in your own teams, your optimism for your own teams, you know, even if it's completely unwarranted.

 

Rob Bell:

So I'm absolutely with you that and another one for sport for me was in golf.

 

So not as a supporter, but as a player, stepping up onto that first tee, I always feel this this could be the best round I've had.

 

And I genuinely believe I'm certainly genuinely, I reckon I can do that.

 

I reckon I can shoot maybe six or seven under my handicap here.

 

But past evidence goes to show that I've never done that.

 

Why should this be?

 

Why should this be different?

 

And I think when it would sport when you're when you're a supporter of a team, it's talked about or it's framed in a slightly different way of being head versus heart, right?

 

And that if I was going to say if I was going to predict the score with my head, I'll say we'll probably lose two nil.

 

But with my heart, I think we could scrape a one nil here.

 

I think we could beat them one nil.

 

And I wonder if there's something there about whether optimism bias is about something that comes from our hearts more than from our heads, not just with sport, but generally in our lives.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Yeah, the heart probably overrules the head.

 

Yeah, I feel that maybe when I'm younger, I had much greater optimism bias and gradually you kind of become a bit more realistic, potentially, because you have the optimism beaten out of you by experience.

 

I think potentially so, you know, when you're young, you're playing golf with your granddad and you've hit your first drive and you've hit it deep in the woods, right?

 

And your granddad's hit like a five iron, he's gone down the middle, right?

 

And then you're in the wood and you're in, you know, you're in horrible stuff, but you get like the three wood out because you're like, no, I could do this.

 

I can cream it out of these, off this rough and smack it onto the green.

 

And what happens, you hit it even further into the wood.

 

But your granddad, if he kind of messes up, he'll just take a short little, you know, little nine iron, pitch it back onto the fairway and then hit another five, right?

 

Whereas when you're young, you're like, yeah, I can get this, really, you know, this is going on the green round that tree over that lake, through that tiny gap, it'll be fine.

 

Jono Hey:

I did start thinking that, you know, as you as you build up more and more experience, there is a tendency perhaps just to start being a bit cynical about things and then things not being any fun.

 

You know, it's probably much less fun to be to not have the optimism, but you want to go, all right, maybe this time it will do it, it's much more interesting life than toodling down the middle of the fairway.

 

Rob Bell:

Well, I agree.

 

I agree.

 

And I'm more like Tommy with my golf game management as well than your grandad, Tommy.

 

But it does come down to the psychology of the optimism bias and the psychology behind it that makes us do this repeatedly before experience does beat it out of us, you know, that people do tend to believe that they're more likely to experience good events than bad.

 

And that's kind of programmed in our human nature.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah, I think there's a lot of, you know, we want to feel that we're in control of things and not just at the whim of circumstances.

 

So, you want to feel that you can influence procedures, you're not just, you know, just another one which is going to get thrown out along with all the others.

 

And I think particularly, like a lot of things, I mean, sports doesn't really matter, but you know, a lot of times you want to please people and you really want things to work out really well.

 

You know, I don't know, you're planning a wedding or something and you're like, okay, I think the weather is going to be amazing.

 

I'm sure it will.

 

Because you want it to be well and you want it to be great for the person and you want it to be great for yourself.

 

So I feel like there is a lot of the psychology there of, you say, heart over mind.

 

But I think that there are also like some of the more serious ones are the more economic side of it as well.

 

So I think there's both because I think, you know, if somebody asks you to do a feasibility for something and their feasibility study, sorry, and they're paying you a lot of money to do it, you know, they really want the answer to be yes.

 

And yes, I can't remember exactly what it was.

 

There's a quote like, it's very difficult to get somebody to understand something when their salary depends on them not understanding it.

 

Yeah.

 

And I think optimum by optimism bias is a bit like this.

 

Rob Bell:

I mean, for me, the one when I worked in office and had a boss, the one that I do regularly would be to over promise on a deadline for when I could do something.

 

And I think I think that is probably very, very common.

 

I think you can talk about it in in the your text under the sketch, Jono, in that when when you're going to have the report done, Rob, I'll have it done by tomorrow.

 

I know that it always takes two to three days to complete that.

 

So and then I was trying to think, well, why would I why did I continuously do that?

 

And I guess there's a kind of bit of calculation in there, thinking, well, maybe that they'll have forgotten by the time it comes to tomorrow.

 

And so in that moment, I could look good.

 

Jono Hey:

For me, like the real the real simple example that I think I'm getting better at, but it's hard is arrival times.

 

You know, if you're running a bit late for something, it's really easy just to say, hey, I'm running a few minutes late.

 

Rob Bell:

Yes.

 

Jono Hey:

When you're really running 10 or 15 minutes late, but it might not even work out.

 

And the result is that you say, oh, I'm five minutes late, actually, I'm 10 minutes late.

 

It's going to be a little bit more.

 

And you made it much worse than just being upfront at the beginning and saying it might be half an hour.

 

Rob Bell:

I'm totally with you in terms of the amount of time I was thinking about when in TV when we're filming a documentary and we were lining up an interview with somebody.

 

So we would have researched the we found out, oh, this is the person we need to go and speak to.

 

So we'll set up on the phone and say, oh, yeah, you know, we'll do an interview.

 

It'd be great.

 

Well, they probably don't even give a time.

 

But if there are some time, oh, 45 minutes to an hour, I can tell you straight away, it's going to be at least three hours.

 

By the time we've got there, we've gone in and said hello, we've had our niceties chat, they've given us a tour of whatever it is.

 

Then we figure out, okay, well, we'll go and get the kit, we get the kit out of the van, and they set it all up and we're setting up all the cameras and the lights and the mics and everything.

 

And then we go through what we're going to talk and they're going to show us in advance what they're going to show us and how we're going to show it.

 

Then you do the interview, then you do all the pickups, and then you do everything and then you have to pack away and then you might relocate somewhere else and it's all again.

 

I mean, it's never a 45 minute chat, but if you told them it was, this is probably going to take three and a half, four hours on the phone.

 

Oh, actually, now you're all right.

 

Tom Pellereau:

So are we saying that Optimism Buyers is brilliantly useful in some instances because it actually gets us out of bed and makes us do stuff and possibly something slightly stupid.

 

But it actually also has quite a dark side as well because it can get the human race and the economy and everything in quite a lot of trouble.

 

Rob Bell:

It can have bad consequences.

 

Yeah.

 

I've read somewhere that the 2008 global financial crash was partly based on optimism bias of the markets, and I think the individuals will also maybe get caught out financially because of optimism, but decisions they've made where optimism bias has played a role in their judgment and decision making.

 

And we're all guilty of it, I'm sure.

 

Tom Pellereau:

And getting ourselves heavily into debt, I think, is a dangerous one with optimism bias and probably gambling is probably a really bad one for optimism bias for people that struggle with that and get themselves in big trouble.

 

So it's something we have to be aware of.

 

And maybe that's why we enjoy it in golf, because it really doesn't matter.

 

Yeah, consequences, you know, it doesn't hugely matter if someone can go up or go down.

 

It does for the club and for them, but it sort of doesn't really matter hugely to us.

 

But you know, actually, that's quite a good place to have optimism bias, because you feel like, yeah, maybe this time, maybe this time.

 

Jono Hey:

I was going to say, well, with startups, I think, you know, on the second startup moment, obviously, you did your own.

 

And I just think people wouldn't do startups if they knew what it was really going to entail.

 

And I think I've heard that so many times, you know, that if I'd have known how hard it would have been, I wouldn't have done it.

 

But I'm really glad I did do it.

 

And you know, so many fail.

 

And if you were to look at the chances of it succeeding, you probably not do it.

 

But then some people do make it and do amazing things.

 

So, yeah, it's definitely definitely a bit both, isn't it?

 

Rob Bell:

I think it is possibly a trait of successful people and successful entrepreneurs that they have maybe a stronger tendency towards optimism bias.

 

But my gosh, they've been through a journey to get there.

 

Jono Hey:

I think you're right.

 

You know, I thought of another realm where it might come in with some parenting.

 

And I was thinking of an example quite early on when we had a really young, it's like four month old and we're like, you know, you think, okay, sort of settle down a bit now, maybe we got this and we booked a trip to Paris.

 

The three of us took the Eurostar and we're like, I think we can manage this, taking a baby to Paris.

 

And, you know, we did sort of have a nice weekend, but I do remember we booked quite a nice hotel and then we didn't have a baby monitor.

 

And then he needs to go to sleep.

 

And we couldn't go out to a restaurant at night because he couldn't sleep in the restaurant.

 

And so I just didn't remember spending two nights.

 

We were in the hotel room.

 

He went to bed.

 

We only had one room.

 

So we turned the light off.

 

And then it was like 7pm.

 

And then we were in the bathroom making sandwiches.

 

This is this is our new romantic weekend, maybe this maybe it's a bit more tricky than we thought you live and learn.

 

Rob Bell:

What I would say is that people who maybe have a tendency to be more influenced by their optimism bias, they're probably they're probably are more fun to be around.

 

Don't you think?

 

Jono Hey:

Who wants to be around a cynical pessimist?

 

That won't work.

 

No point in doing that.

 

Might as well stay at home.

 

Rob Bell:

And they'll have great stories as well.

 

Jono Hey:

Optimists are healthier and happier, apparently as well.

 

Yeah.

 

Rob Bell:

Yes.

 

Yes.

 

Because it's that I guess with optimism and visualizing your success, there's a certain amount of kind of self-esteem and I don't know if ego is the right word, but positivity that you fill yourself with, which will have positive mental health and thus physical health attributes, I guess.

 

And you can really, I think you can, kind of string all of that together.

 

Jono Hey:

Yeah, I think so.

 

And I think the studies show it also, you know, and if you think you're healthier, people often do healthier things and tend to live longer, healthier lives, so.

 

Tom Pellereau:

I think the three of us are very much talking something up that we are, because the three of us are very optimism-buying.

 

Rob Bell:

I hope this works.

 

Tom Pellereau:

And we're all like talking it out, the only hit is we're also, three of us quite lucky to still be alive because of our optimism bias.

 

You think of the Yukon River, Robby, that story that you saw, I'll be fine, let's get over there.

 

Rob Bell:

The you'll be fine quote did come to me when I was thinking about optimism bias, yeah.

 

Jono Hey:

It'll be fine.

 

Rob Bell:

It'll be fine.

 

Tom Pellereau:

As a result, we've had a lot of very fun times in the belief that this will be all right and luckily in the main, it has been.

 

Rob Bell:

Yeah.

 

So along those lines, I was thinking about how optimism bias can be a means of trying to persuade people to do things you'd like them to do.

 

Jono Hey:

Go on.

 

Rob Bell:

And it's not a conscious thing necessarily.

 

So like you'll be fine, let's be down here or maybe slightly down talking the distance of a run or a cycle that you're on with somebody who'd really like to come along, I know you'd be fine, it'll only feel like 50k, maybe doing an 80k, but subconsciously I'm probably doing that or at the weekend I was out on the bike with my girlfriend and saying, oh, look, this is the last big climb that we have to do on this ride, knowing that there are a couple of little ones further along.

 

So I don't know if that's optimism bias or if it's just barefaced lying.

 

Jono Hey:

It's just manipulation, it needs to be done with kids sometimes.

 

I'm sure that's the top, it's basically the top of the hill right there, just that bit and then just a tiny little bit after that and then you're basically there, done all the hard bit.

 

Honest.

 

Rob Bell:

It's the carrot.

 

So another area, I thought Tommy, that specifically relates to you, I think, there must be quite difficult and where it's absolutely crucial that you acknowledge any optimism bias that might be coming in is in forecasting sales, particularly around Christmas.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Yes.

 

Rob Bell:

The context of this is you're having to forecast the amount of sales that you might do at the end of the year and you have to forecast that halfway through the year in order to get them produced and delivered.

 

Tom Pellereau:

And the tricky thing about being a leader is you have to protect the team against the consequences of things going wrong, whilst also not sort of being sales prevention or Eeyore or something going, you know, and crushing people's dreams.

 

It's quite a difficult balance.

 

Jono Hey:

I really like your Eeyore example.

 

Eeyore is like the ultimate pessimist.

 

It'll never work.

 

No point in doing that.

 

It's probably broken already.

 

And then you've got Tigger.

 

Tigger is like the ultimate optimist.

 

This is going to be amazing.

 

I can do that.

 

Let's go.

 

And then he gets stuck up a tree, you know.

 

But all things considered, who would you rather be around?

 

Probably go with Tigger, you know.

 

Rob Bell:

So then, is there something as a pessimism bias then as well?

 

Jono Hey:

We should go check.

 

I think there was something, but to me, I remember when I was reading about optimism bias, it just felt like there were more obvious compelling reasons why you might be led towards the optimism way and as a species and a human race over time.

 

Rob Bell:

It's within human psychology.

 

Jono Hey:

I think so.

 

It's just when you get full of experience and old and cynical and boring, then you get the pessimism bias.

 

Don't want to be around Tom.

 

Tom Pellereau:

He always forecasts really low.

 

Rob Bell:

Now, I've suddenly become conscious that we're three males talking about this.

 

I'm wondering if it's different from a female's perspective.

 

Wiser perspective.

 

And I haven't read any other on this yet, but genuinely, a wiser perspective that maybe either acknowledges the fact that their decisions could be influenced by optimism bias or that there isn't as much influence.

 

They don't have as much optimism bias.

 

I don't know, genuinely don't know, but stereotypically sat here thinking, I'd probably say, yeah, and as a consequence, come out with more sensible decisions.

 

Jono Hey:

I don't know if I feel comfortable commenting on that, but I will say in a-

 

Rob Bell:

I don't know as I feel comfortable saying it.

 

Jono Hey:

In a couple, in a relationship or something, you probably do often have like the two different sides and it probably works out really quite well.

 

You know, you have somebody who's, come on, let's go do that.

 

It'll be fine.

 

And somebody's like, yeah, but okay, if we're gonna do that, let's make sure we pack some extra clothes or whatever.

 

You know, somebody's actually thinking it through.

 

Yeah.

 

And I think that's really smart.

 

You know, I said about the arrival times.

 

I remember one of the things that made me better at it was being with somebody.

 

And when he worked through when we were gonna get somewhere, he just rounded everything up and said, okay, well, it's probably a 10-minute walk, but let's allow, well, even, yeah.

 

It's a 15-minute drive.

 

Let's allow 30, another 30 for that.

 

People are gonna go to their rooms, get changed.

 

Let's give that an hour, you know, like really big things.

 

And so if, you know, what's the worst that can happen is you get there a little bit early.

 

By having the worst case in mind, it really helped, I think, or not about the worst case, but-

 

Rob Bell:

I know what you mean.

 

The flip side of that is that you arrive at the airport and you've got three hours to kill.

 

But what were you gonna do with that extra hour at home anyway?

 

Jono Hey:

I love that.

 

Tom Pellereau:

To me, to me, that's about the most dangerous.

 

One of the worst flights that I missed.

 

So Jono, you remember when I missed my flight back for your wedding, when I was the best man?

 

Jono Hey:

I do remember that, yeah.

 

Tom Pellereau:

You remember that one?

 

And that was because it was the first time ever that we were early to the airport.

 

So we were, normally we had to leg it through passport, could leg it through check-in, passport.

 

We specially got there early and we went to have some dinner.

 

And then I thought he was concentrating on the time.

 

He thought I was gonna, we had this lovely dinner.

 

And then we realized that the flight had basically left.

 

And it's because we had that extra time.

 

Jono Hey:

It's such a classic, such a classic.

 

Rob Bell:

Whereas had you gone with your optimism bias of past times that was all based on optimism bias because each of those times you'd been running for the gate.

 

Interesting.

 

God, it's not.

 

Jono Hey:

He made it, by the way.

 

Rob Bell:

It is.

 

Jono Hey:

You're wondering.

 

Rob Bell:

I guess to round this off or try and make some kind of conclusion for optimism bias, in my mind, it's quite a complex thing because it works in so many different ways.

 

And I think it has different guises under different contexts.

 

And the outcomes of it could be considered both positive and negative.

 

There's risk and reward for that head versus heart type decisions.

 

Jono Hey:

I think a piece of it is like, when does it matter?

 

And I just quite enjoy, I never thought about it before, but you know, it doesn't matter if you're really gonna swing at this one on the golf course, go for it.

 

Because, you know, you just missed a few shots.

 

But if you're like, talking about mountain safety or whether or not your business is gonna fold, then do the analysis and try to get rid of all the factors around optimism bias that you can.

 

So maybe there's a lot of the context, but absolutely, I think there's a lot of things that play into it.

 

And so, yeah, focus on the times when it really matters, I think.

 

Rob Bell:

Well, listen, I think there are quite a few articles online about optimism bias.

 

So listeners, if you're interested and keen to learn a bit more about this, then bang it into Google, optimism bias, and have a good read around that because there is plenty to be looking on to.

 

What does that mean?

 

I don't know.

 

Uh, f**k it, carry on.

 

Tom Pellereau:

I'll make something of it.

 

Rob Bell:

I've got an optimism bias there that when I come to the edit, I'll be able to make sense of that.

 

It'll be fine.

 

Tom Pellereau:

If I just start riffing, something brilliant will happen.

 

Jono Hey:

Like a wing in it.

 

Optimism bias or wing in it.

 

Rob Bell:

Let us know guys by emailing hello at sketchplanations.com or via social media, any stories of when you've encountered optimism bias, whether you delivered or were in receipt of it.

 

And we love reading all of your comments and all of your messages.

 

So please do keep them coming in.

 

And we'll be going through a load of stuff that you've sent us about previous episodes very shortly.

 

Otherwise, that's it for this week.

 

And I have to say, it does feel like this could be our best episode yet.

 

Certainly our longest.

 

Well, thank you very much for listening on this week's installment.

 

Please like and subscribe to the podcast series if you've enjoyed it and you want to hear more.

 

And you can maybe even leave us a review.

 

Next week's podcast is all about what makes something fungible or not.

 

You can look it up in advance on sketchplanations.com or just wait for the episode to drop at the usual time and place.

 

Until then, stay well, go well.

 

Cheers.

 

Jono Hey:

Later.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Goodbye.

 

Rob Bell:

All right, before we get into any of the post bag, it only dawned on me as I was posting and publishing last week's episode that the fresh start effect landed on the 1st of June.

 

How great a coincidence was that?

 

Jono Hey:

That wasn't a coincidence.

 

Tom Pellereau:

You planned that, I'm sure.

 

I was really impressed.

 

I was like, it's the 1st of June and you put that out.

 

Jono Hey:

Well, well done.

 

Rob Bell:

I wish.

 

And in fact, I was putting it up on social media and only after I'd done it twice, I thought, oh, hang on, I missed a thing on.

 

I went back and edited the post.

 

Oh, this is good.

 

I can make this feel like this was-

 

So about the fresh start effect, Prech on Twitter said, Every year I have friends at work who resigned to a veil of an early retirement, most of them on a whim.

 

Their fresh start is the end to a corporate life.

 

And then their social media posts are all about traveling, farming, cooking, what have yous, and I'm green with envy.

 

But I really like that, that, you know, what is typically seen as the end of something.

 

Prech is saying that a lot of people who she worked with were seeing it as the fresh start.

 

Jono Hey:

Next chapter of life.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Because she said early, I wonder if they were doing it like at exactly when they were 60 or something, or exactly when they were 65, or something like they were doing on a specific year, date, day.

 

Rob Bell:

It is a kind of nine-enders thing that age of retirement in different countries that you, I guess, for a lot of your life, you work towards, try and get in everything you can before you reach it.

 

Jono Hey:

We should have lots of chapters along the way.

 

A chapter is like a little fresh start, isn't it?

 

Tom Pellereau:

That'd be nice.

 

Jono Hey:

What's our next chapter gonna be?

 

Rob Bell:

That's what nine-enders are for, aren't they?

 

To make sure that there's at least something in there.

 

Yeah, maybe within careers, within your working life, there should be chapters, not just your first job and when did you retire.

 

Yeah.

 

Yeah.

 

And Rebecca on Instagram was talking about making every moment or every morning, whatever it is, a fresh start, to forget what's gone before.

 

And I think this was very much in response to you guys talking about how great your kids are, how great kids generally are at just kind of forgetting what happened the day before.

 

It's a morning, we've forgotten all of that.

 

So she says, this is absolutely my mentality and it does drive some people crazy though, wondering how I do it and the fact that they can't.

 

So I guess that's kind of not bearing a grudge type thing.

 

Well, that was then, this is now.

 

Jono Hey:

Have a sketch about, don't hold grudges.

 

It's not really a sketch, but that's basically what it says.

 

Rob Bell:

Is it a lesson from Lewis?

 

Jono Hey:

It is, it is.

 

Yeah, it's a lesson from kids.

 

Like don't hold grudges.

 

Like now's a new moment.

 

Tomorrow, yeah.

 

It helps when the morning, the next morning is a blue sky.

 

Don't you think?

 

I feel like somehow that like just feels open, right?

 

Full of possibility today.

 

Yeah, it's nice.

 

Rob Bell:

In the podcast, we were saying how it's not easy to do that, right?

 

It's not necessarily easy to be like, oh, that happened yesterday.

 

Forget about that.

 

Let's move on.

 

But I would be, I am, I guess, very envious of people who can just do that very effectively and genuinely mean it, not kind of, I'll push that grudge down and act like everything's okay.

 

Genuinely be cool with it.

 

That was yesterday.

 

This is fresh start.

 

Let's go.

 

I mean, what a great way to live.

 

Jono Hey:

Try and not even wait till tomorrow, right?

 

Tom Pellereau:

Have either of you read the curious instant of a dog in the nighttime?

 

Rob Bell:

I have.

 

Tom Pellereau:

Because there's a bit in that where it's a brilliant, and I remember really pointedly, like Jono, you said with the blue sky, it's easy with the blue sky.

 

And the boy in that, when he sees a yellow car, he's like, and today's gonna be a great day because he's seen a yellow car.

 

And it happens a few times and you're like, what is with this?

 

That's weird that you see a yellow car and it's a great day.

 

But then as you think about it more, I remember thinking, well, I think it's gonna be a great day when I see a blue sky, but actually doesn't make any difference.

 

Yeah.

 

It just feels a bit warmer and I don't need an umbrella, mainly I'm in an office.

 

It makes no difference.

 

And it's no different to me saying, oh, there's a yellow car, great day.

 

So you probably need to, all of us think about more things that could just make today a great day.

 

Oh yes, I've arrived at my office.

 

Rob Bell:

Today's gonna be a great day.

 

It does reinforce, I think our conclusion from last week that every moment can be a fresh start to quote a very wise man.

 

And that your fresh start can be as arbitrary as you like, right?

 

Jono Hey:

I think we need her skill.

 

Rob Bell:

Yeah, we do.

 

Thank you, Rebecca.

 

And finally, I've been watching, this is one of my own contributions to the mailbag.

 

And I'm taking us back a bit further to Don't Feel the Silence.

 

I've been watching a documentary on BBC iPlayer recently called Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland, and it's all about the troubles.

 

And it's a lot of interviews with people on both sides who were right in amongst it.

 

And the use of silence by the interviewers with these guys is amazing.

 

It's really, really, really good.

 

And as we were discussing in the podcast, it's so powerful, but it just really hit me what was happening because of that silence.

 

Because we've been talking about it a couple of weeks ago, a few weeks ago.

 

I'd encourage you to watch it.

 

Jono Hey:

So it's just like, it looks like they're doing nothing, but they're not.

 

They're doing exactly what they need to do, which is nothing at that point.

 

Rob Bell:

And there's so much happening in that silence.

 

Because it's obviously, listen, it's highly contentious.

 

Some of the people they're interviewing were part of the violence.

 

They're sat there and they're talking about it.

 

And so they've been asked a very open question about it.

 

And they'll answer as much as they want to answer.

 

And then there's a silence.

 

Yeah, it just struck me because of what we're talking about.

 

It was great.

 

Jono Hey:

That's brilliant.

 

Jono Hey:

I'll be on the lookout.

 

Do, do.

 

All right, guys, well, we're gonna leave you all there.

 

Thanks again for listening.

 

Tom Pellereau:

See you next week.

 

Rob Bell:

Cheers, bye bye.

 

All music on this podcast series is sourced from the very talented Franc Cinelli.

 

And you can find loads more tracks at franccinelli.com.